Oracle3

Autonomous prediction market trading agent across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Solana.

This system deploys the exact $\lambda$ estimates and covariate model from prediction-market-pricing (Yang, 2026) as its real-time pricing engine.

Architecture

graph TD
    A[Wang Transform Pricing Engine<br/>MLE coefficients from paper] --> B[Fair Value Estimator<br/>Model Greeks · Kelly Sizing]
    B --> C[Strategy Layer]
    C --> D[8 Constraint-Based Arbitrage]
    C --> E[2 Model-Driven Strategies]
    C --> F[LLM Agent Strategies]
    D --> G[Trading Engine<br/>SpreadExecutor · Risk Manager · Position Tracker]
    E --> G
    F --> G
    G --> H[Kalshi]
    G --> I[Polymarket]
    G --> J[Solana / DFlow]

Strategies

Constraint-based arbitrage — each exploits a violated probability axiom:

| Strategy | Invariant | |----------|-----------| | Cross-Market | Same event, same price across exchanges | | Exclusivity | $P(A) + P(B) \leq 1$ for mutually exclusive events | | Implication | $P(A) \leq P(B)$ when A implies B | | Conditional | $P(A \mid B) \in [L, U]$ within derived bounds | | Event Sum | $\sum P(\text{outcome}_i) = 1$ within an event | | Structural | $P(A) = \beta \cdot P(B) + \alpha$ from calibrated model |

oracle3

Oracle3

Architecture

Strategies

Related Skills

Pricing Engine

Quick Start

Key Technical Choices

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