🐋 Polymarket Whale Watcher

AI-Powered Whale Trade Intelligence for Polymarket Prediction Markets

Real-time monitoring of 700+ markets  ·  14 autonomous research tools  ·  Multi-step deep analysis  ·  Signal accuracy tracking

Quick Start   |   How It Works   |   Sample Report   |   Configuration   |   Dashboard

What It Does

Whale Watcher continuously monitors 700+ active Polymarket markets across three volume tiers, detects large trades with anomalous patterns, and deploys an LLM agent with 14 autonomous research tools to conduct multi-step deep investigations. Each whale trade undergoes a structured 7-step analysis pipeline — from trader profiling and cross-market position mapping to information gap assessment — producing an Information Asymmetry Score that quantifies the likelihood of non-public information advantage.

Live Demo

$ python -m src.main run

============================================================
WHALE WATCHER STARTED
============================================================
Monitoring: 765 markets
Interval: 10 seconds
Min Trade Size: $10,000 USD
Price Range: 0.1 - 0.9
============================================================

Tiered monitoring: Tier1=8 (>500K), Tier2=198 (>10K), Tier3=559 (>1K)

[23:41:12] WHALE TRADE DETECTED!
           Amount: $9,600.00 USDC
           Side: BUY Yes
           Price: 0.7142
           Market: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

           Generating analysis report...
           Round 1: LLM requested 3 tool call(s)
           → search_web("US Iran diplomatic meeting June 2026")
           → search_twitter("US Iran meeting diplomacy")
           → get_wallet_transfers("0xceza...rn132")
           Round 2: LLM requested 2 tool call(s)
           → search_web("Islamabad Iran talks Witkoff April 2026")
           → search_twitter("POLYMARKET Iran meeting odds fading")
           Round 3: LLM requested 1 tool call(s)
           → search_web("Iran FM Araghchi 3 phase deal proposal")

           Analysis complete after 3 round(s)
           Information Asymmetry Score: 0.32 (LOW)
           Trader Credibility: MEDIUM (#1733, PnL: $84K)
           Verdict: Thesis continuation / loss recovery — HOLD/PASS
           Report saved: reports/20260504/...

Each whale trade generates a comprehensive markdown report with structured multi-step analysis:

Full example: docs/examples/sample_report.md

Report Structure

======================================================================
# Whale Trade Analysis Report
======================================================================

┌─ Trade Summary ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Market, trade size, direction, price, odds, time, trader rank     │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─ Step 2: Trade Signal Analysis ─────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Trader profile: rank, PnL, avg size, large trade ratio            │
│  Domain expertise detection, trade timing analysis                  │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─ Step 3: Event-Related Position Analysis ───────────────────────────┐
│  Cross-market positions, roll-forward detection                     │
│  Loss recovery patterns, hedge identification                       │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─ Step 4: Market Long/Short Analysis ────────────────────────────────┐
│  Top 5 bulls & bears with rankings and PnL                          │
│  Smart money consensus assessment                                   │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─ Step 5: Information Gap Analysis ──────────────────────────────────┐
│  Public information audit (web, Twitter, Telegram)                  │
│  Market pricing efficiency check                                    │
│  Non-public information evidence search                             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─ Step 6: Historical Pattern ────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Trader's past bets on related events                               │
│  Strategy pattern recognition (laddering, hedging, etc.)            │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─ Step 7: Information Asymmetry Assessment ──────────────────────────┐
│  Score (0–1), trader credibility, evidence, reasoning               │
│  Multi-factor summary table with signal strength                    │
│  Recommended action: BUY / HOLD / PASS                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Example Summary Table

Daily briefings are generated at 10:00 AM local time and emailed automatically.

Full example: docs/examples/sample_briefing.md

Includes:

• High-confidence signals (IAS >= 60%) with full analysis summaries
• Fallback: top 5 signals by score if none reach the threshold
• Abnormal price volatility alerts
• Historical signal performance — win rate and ROI by confidence tier

Quick Start

One-Click Setup

git clone https://github.com/chaoleiyv/polymarket-whale-watcher.git
cd polymarket-whale-watcher
chmod +x setup.sh && ./setup.sh

The setup script will:

1. Check Python 3.10+ is installed
2. Create a virtual environment
3. Install all dependencies
4. Create .env from template

Then add your API key and start:

# Add your Gemini API key (the only required key)
echo "GEMINI_API_KEY=your_key_here" >> .env

# Activate the environment and run
source .venv/bin/activate
python -m src.main run

Get a free Gemini API key: https://aistudio.google.com/apikey

Docker

docker build -t whale-watcher .
docker run --env-file .env -v ./data:/app/data -v ./reports:/app/reports whale-watcher

How It Works

flowchart LR
    A[Polymarket API] --> B[Market Fetcher]
    B --> C[700+ Tiered Markets]
    C --> D[Trade Monitor]
    D --> E{Whale\nTrade?}
    E -->|No| D
    E -->|Yes| F[Anomaly Detector]
    F --> G{Score >= 0.65?}
    G -->|No| D
    G -->|Yes| H[LLM Analyzer]
    H --> I[14 Research Tools]
    I --> J[Signal + Report]
    J --> K[Resolution Tracker]
    K --> L[Dashboard + Email]

Pipeline

Features